Global Warming, Rainfall Patterns, and Adapting to a Changing World

Golden Rainbow
The rain in Spain falls mostly in the plain... Or at least it used to.
(paraphrasing lyrics to the song from "My Fair Lady")

Earlier this year I received some emails from people commenting on my global warming blog taking me to task for advocating awareness and action in the face of climate change because “the snow is piled high outside my window” and that us “global warming people” shouldn’t “throw away our winter clothes just yet”.

My standard reply to such nonsense was (and still is) that climate is not weather and any local weather is not, in and of itself, an indication one way or another as “proof” of global warming.

It is trends and patterns that portend climate change, and to that end, a report due out this week indicates rainfall patterns are, in fact, trending toward significant changes in the coming century.

Predicting precipitation patterns can be even more difficult than predicting temperature, but Francis Zwiers of Environment Canada in Toronto has meticulously studied two sets of global precipitation data from 1925 to 1999 and compared this with 14 computer model simulations and found a surprisingly close fit between the empirical data and the computer models showing a human influence on rainfall patterns.

Of course “skeptics” will claim that models can be wrong, and that is a point well taken. In fact, previous models have likely underestimated the magnitude of future changes in rainfall patterns and major “precipitation events”.

And that doesn’t mean that everybody’s going to get wet. The mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere will likely see increased rainfall, as well as areas just south of the Equator. Just north of the equator will likely be (and already is) drier than what has been the norm.

To me, the larger issue (not that monsoon rains, floods, and human suffering are exactly trivial) is not whether this model or that model is an absolute predictor of the future. What makes us “smart” (if I might be so generous) is our ability to adapt and plan for the future. To be aware beyond our own immediate circumstances.

So the question becomes, just how smart are we? We are heavily adapted to the world as it has been, and as it is now. But it is changing. We don’t need a model or a scientific study to see that. The signs all point in one direction. Can we adapt to the future of our making, or will we allow it to be our own undoing?

Heady stuff. In the meantime, pass me the umbrella.

Sources and Further Reading
Nature.com
New Scientist
The Independent
News.com.au

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Global Warming, Rainfall Patterns, and Adapting to a Changing World

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