Double Trouble - Sea Level Projections May Be Way Off The Mark

We know both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are melting faster than expected. Most people can agree on that point. Where the debate really gets heated is when specific predictions are made with respect to sea level rise, and especially sea level rise predicted for the remainder of this century. If a new study just released by the University at Buffalo is correct - sea levels may rise twice as much as currently projected.

"Ice sheet models usually don't include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature," said Csatho. "This research will give ice sheet modelers more precise, more detailed data." The implications of these richer datasets may be dramatic, Csatho said, especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates, such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "If current climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland, the sea level rise estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting," she said.

This new study coupled with recent data about high altitude snow melting in Greenland is indeed cause for alarm.

The high places of icy Greenland set a new record in 2007 for snow melt. Marco Tedesco is a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. He said that at altitudes above 2,000 meters in Greenland – a little over a mile high – snow melted for up to 30 days longer than the 20-year average. Marco Tedesco: This is about 150 percent greater than the previous average.

The University at Buffalo study mentions 'ice dynamics' and its effect on the glacier melting process. It's equally relevant to discuss 'snow dynamics' as melting snow plays a vital role in the overall ice melt process. Both of these factors mixed together make for an ominous global warming recipe.

When the snow melts, you have two major factors. The first thing, melting snow produces liquid water that can directly flow, at low elevation, into the sea, and so contributing directly to sea-level rise, or it can percolate through the ice sheet, eventually lubricating the ice-bedrock interface and accelerating the speed of glaciers flowing into the sea. What’s more, as fresh, brighter snow melts away, older, darker snow lies exposed, absorbing more sunlight and getting even warmer.

via [earthsky.org]
via [sciencedaily]
image [nick_russill]

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Double Trouble - Sea Level Projections May Be Way Off The Mark

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